In the ever-evolving landscape of urban demographics, the battle for the title of the sixth-largest U.S. city is heating up, with Philadelphia and San Antonio trading places like chess pieces on a dynamic board. While Philly has long been a stalwart of charm and character, San Antonio is quietly expanding its horizons, annexing land like a hungry city gobbling up its neighbors. But what makes this story truly captivating is the strategic use of annexation as a growth tactic, a move that raises questions about the future of these cities and the factors driving their population trends.
The Growth Tactic
San Antonio's growth strategy is like a secret weapon, a demographic equivalent of steroids that has propelled it closer to Philadelphia's position. By expanding its geographic boundaries, the city has effectively increased its square footage, which in turn has boosted its population. This is a stark contrast to Philadelphia, which has remained largely stagnant in terms of its boundaries for over a century. While Philly's old-school charm and allure have kept residents loyal, San Antonio's annexation policy has been a game-changer, allowing it to close the gap with its northern neighbor.
The Role of Annexation
Annexation is a choice that cities make based on what they believe to be in their best interests, according to Katie Martin, who leads research at the Pew Charitable Trusts' Philadelphia research and policy initiative. In the case of San Antonio, this strategy has been a success, allowing it to increase its population and close the gap with Philadelphia. However, this is not a unique strategy; many cities in the South are expanding their boundaries, while cities in the Northeast, which tend to be older and more established, are less likely to do so.
The Broader Trend
The demographic trends in the Northeast and South are starkly different, with large cities in the Northeast staying stable while their counterparts in the South are growing faster. This is partly due to the fixed nature of city boundaries in the Northeast vs. the fluid nature of those in the South. However, this is not the only reason the large southern cities are outpacing the growth of the northeastern ones. Career opportunities, weather, affordability, and family are often primary reasons people choose to move to certain cities, and these factors, alongside rapid annexation of land, have likely contributed to Phoenix overtaking Philadelphia as the nation's fifth-largest city in 2020.
The Future of the Sixth-Largest City
No one can predict what year San Antonio will eclipse Philadelphia as the nation's sixth-largest city, but if current trends continue, it may rise above Philly in the rankings in just a few years. This change will have consequences beyond an ego blow that Rocky Balboa himself would have difficulty stomaching. Philly being demoted to the nation's seventh-largest city could result in changes to the representation and resources afforded to the City of Brotherly Love, Martin said. Population figures can influence how many congressional seats a state gets and where the electoral boundaries are drawn. They are also a consideration in how much federal funding is available to each city and state.
The Importance of Population Health and Amenities
While the ranking matters, what is more important is the health of the city's population and a variety of amenities, said Gregory Diebold, senior planning data specialist with the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. Philadelphia has existing housing stock, good transit, and a diverse economy, making it stable. In the last few years, many important population and demographic indicators have appeared to be returning to pre-COVID-19 levels, with the city gaining residents the last two years, largely through immigration. However, its population remains below its pre-pandemic figure.
The Takeaway
In the end, the battle for the sixth-largest city is not just about rankings, but about the health and sustainability of the city's population and amenities. While San Antonio's annexation strategy has been a success, it raises questions about the future of Philadelphia and the factors driving its population trends. As the cities continue to evolve, the story of the sixth-largest city will be one of growth, change, and the interplay between charm, annexation, and the ever-shifting demographics of urban America.
